Lately, it feels like every week brings another wave of news about a ministry leader, someone we might have looked up to, facing serious allegations or admitted failures.
For me, the recent situation surrounding Dr. Michael Brown in particular has been weighing heavily on many minds including my own, as have others in the charismatic world. Everything is getting exposed.
But let’s talk about something called “hindsight bias” mixed in with some bandwagon effect and consider something real quick.
I’ve been seeing friends and colleagues of mine I trust posting links to articles and videos about others I’m not so well connected to or in the know about, sharing their reasons for defending someone in the past or not having seen something for themselves that others are coming forward about (like with Todd White, for example) and the comments on these social media posts and YouTube videos are just hard for me to take in.
- “I knew it!”
- “I always had a bad feeling about him.”
- “Something just never sat right with me and that ministry.”
- “Did you see how [insert slightly off-kilter sermon moment from years ago] – it was all there in plain sight!”
Suddenly, conversations are filled with folks claiming 20/20 foresight, AFTER the fact. After the exposure.
Everyone’s an expert in spotting the signs, after the signs are already flashing neon red.
But friends, before we all jump on the “I was right all along” bandwagon, let’s pause and consider a little brain trick called “hindsight bias”.
Psychologists have a name for this, and it’s worth understanding, especially in times like these. Hindsight bias is basically our brain’s sneaky way of rewriting our memory after the fact to make us look smarter, more perceptive, more… right.
We get new information – a public scandal, an admission of sin – and bam! Our memories get a little rewrite and we convince ourselves, innocently enough, that we always had this information all along. And, our brain thinks it did. It’s like we’re editing our past to align with our present knowledge, and then confidently declaring, “See? I knew it all along!”
Have you ever had someone in your life send you an article or a link about something and they tell you “I told you so!” and you think to youself, wait a minute, you’ve never once told me ANYTHING!” This is what could be happening.
Think about it: Before the news broke or someone wrote an article exposing someone or a YouTuber made an exposé and prior to that, many of us never knew any better about someone, we likely focused on the good or were ambivalent at worst. We may have appreciated the teaching, a certain ministry’s impact, the seemingly genuine faith. That’s normal!
But after the revelation?
Suddenly, those past interactions, those sermons, those “vibes” get re-interpreted through a new, and now very critical, lens. A quirky sermon illustration becomes a sign of theological error. A moment of intensity is now seen as manipulation. A strong personality, now labeled as controlling.
Now, let me be clear. It’s absolutely true that for some, these scandals do provide the courage to finally speak out about genuine concerns. When the dam breaks, many who have experienced harm or seen questionable behavior might feel safe enough to share their stories, and that’s valid and important.
And don’t get me wrong: there are people who’ve been sounding the alarm all along about some of these figures now finally having their double lives or hypocrisies come to light. Sometimes, the public unraveling validates what they’ve been saying all along, often dismissed or doubted before. And I’m all here for it!
However, there’s also the danger of the bandwagon effect, mixed with this hindsight bias. It’s easy to get caught up in the collective “I knew it” chorus. There’s a strange social validation in saying “I saw it coming,” even if, in reality, our “seeing” is being significantly colored by what we NOW know.
Are we really remembering genuine red flags from the past?
Or are we just retrofitting our memories to feel validated and perhaps a bit… superior?
And let’s be honest, sometimes, it’s easier to jump on the condemnation train than to engage with the messy, complicated reality of sin, repentance, and restoration. It’s tidier to say, “They were always bad” than to wrestle with the fact that leaders we once admired can fall, and that human nature, even in ministry, is deeply flawed.
Let’s be discerning, yes.
Let’s be wise, absolutely!
But let’s also be deeply honest about the tricks our own minds can play, especially in the aftermath of disappointment and scandal. Maybe, instead of confidently proclaiming “I knew it all along,” we should embrace a bit more humility.
Maybe we should acknowledge that even we can be deceived.
Perhaps we should spend less time re-writing our pasts, and more time praying for genuine brokenness, repentance, and restoration – both in the lives of fallen leaders and in our own hearts.
Because grace, after all, is for the broken. And aren’t we all, in some way, broken and in constant need of it?
Just some thoughts from this coffee drinking canuck down in Peru.
P.S. A couple of good books I’ve listened to multiple times over the years on these kinds of things are by David McRaney,
and
There are a lot of good books out there on meta cognition and understanding how our brains work, but I love the narrator’s diction in the audiobook version and the humor the author brings to the work. Be warned there’s some light swearing, so make sure you’re not listening to on speakers with your favorite nun around.
